Semiconductor Money to Real Estate? H2 Real Estate Outlook_26.06.26. | Jeong Bohyeon, Kim Jiyeon, Yeo Doeun, Heo Jaemu [Morning N Investment]

Summary

Jeong Bohyeon and Kim Ji-yeon discuss the Korean housing market in H2 2025. They analyze supply shortages in Seoul's jeonse market, the overheating of Dongtan driven by semiconductor wealth, and the case for upgrading to Bundang. Kim Ji-yeon details potential changes in comprehensive holding taxes and capital gains rules that could reshape demand and supply. The conversation also notes government efforts to prevent stock market gains from fueling further real estate price increases.

• Seoul jeonse market faces extreme supply tightness, supporting continued price strength.
• Dongtan has surged on semiconductor money but appears near a short-term top; regulation is likely.
• Bundang offers an attractive upgrade trade as the price gap with Dongtan has narrowed.
• Comprehensive holding tax may rise sharply via a market ratio increase from 60% to 80%.
• Capital gains tax deduction for non-resident single-home owners could be cut from 80% to 40%.
• Government policy aims to divert stock market wealth away from real estate through tax measures and supply pledges.
• Higher interest rates later in 2025 pose an additional downside risk for property prices.