Name: O PROBLEMA GIGANTESCO QUE O BRASIL ESTÁ ADIANDO
Uploaded: 2026-01-23T01:00:00+00:00
Duration: 942 s

Speakers

José Márcio Camargo — Host, economist

Mansueto Almeida — Chief Economist, BTG Pactual

Samuel Pessôa — Economista e sócio da JGP

Summary

Mansueto Almeida and Samuel Pessoa, with host José Márcio Camargo, discuss Brazil's fiscal outlook and the risk that a positive economic narrative postpones necessary adjustments. They estimate a fiscal effort of nearly R$300 billion is needed to stabilize debt, highlighting rigid mandatory spending and the difficulty of reform. They also note positive developments in infrastructure concessions, sanitation, and the absence of major microeconomic imbalances compared to 2015-16.

Brazil's positive narrative may delay fiscal adjustment, with 2027 as the key risk.
Stabilizing debt requires nearly R$300 billion in primary adjustment.
Mandatory expenses are highly rigid, making adjustment harder than in 2015-16.
High interest rates are expected for 2025-2026, but a third year depends on fiscal clarity.
Infrastructure investment has surprised positively despite high rates due to concession schedules.
Society has matured on concessions; telecom and airports show benefits.
Sanitation concessions are expanding under a new regulatory framework.
Brazil lacks the severe microeconomic problems seen in 2015-16.

Ideas

José Márcio Camargo Host, economist 0:39

Positive Brazil narrative delays needed fiscal adjustment.

A positive narrative for Brazil—moderate growth, controlled inflation, low unemployment, and a weaker dollar—may postpone the necessary fiscal adjustment and create a false sense of control. The key long-term issue is not the 2026 election but the fiscal plan adopted in 2027, regardless of who wins. If the fiscal problem is not addressed, it may surface suddenly and much closer to investors.

Mansueto Almeida Chief Economist, BTG Pactual 2:00

Brazil needs R$300bn fiscal adjustment.

Brazil needs a primary fiscal adjustment of nearly R$300 billion to stabilize the debt. Mandatory expenses make up over R$2.1 trillion of the federal budget and are highly rigid, so the adjustment cannot be done in one or two years by cutting spending abruptly. The next government must control the growth of mandatory spending; otherwise, a large tax increase of similar magnitude will be required, which is politically difficult.

Mansueto Almeida Chief Economist, BTG Pactual 11:17

Infrastructure investment resilient despite high Brazilian rates.

Despite high interest rates, infrastructure investment in Brazil has surprised positively because concessionaires are committed to investment schedules and have floating-rate debt; they expect rate cuts in 2027, which would reduce debt service and improve project economics. This supports the Brazilian infrastructure sector.

Samuel Pessôa Economista e sócio da JGP 12:54

Brazil concession agenda shows political maturity.

Brazilian society has matured on concessions, with less political resistance to public-private partnerships. The current government has performed well on concessions, and sectors such as telecom and airports have benefited. This concession agenda is a positive structural development for Brazilian infrastructure.

Samuel Pessôa Economista e sócio da JGP 15:00

Brazil sanitation concessions drive investment growth.

Sanitation in Brazil has a large unmet need—half of households lack sewage access. The regulatory framework change five years ago allowed states to grant sanitation concessions, and governors across parties are increasing investment. This is a positive and underappreciated investment theme in Brazilian sanitation.

O PROBLEMA GIGANTESCO QUE O BRASIL ESTÁ ADIANDO

Summary

Ideas

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