G7 Allies Question Trump's Hormuz Optimism; Stocks Waver | Horizons Middle East & Africa 6/16/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 16, 2026 at 08:14  |  48:01  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Paul Gooden — Ninety One, Natural Resources Head
Mehvish Ayub — Head of Managed Solutions, Bank of Singapore
Winnie Hsu — Bloomberg Reporter (Asia Markets)

Summary

The show covers the US-Iran MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and skepticism from European allies, with global stocks pausing their relief rally. A Bank of Singapore strategist flags risks to AI stocks from potential US export controls on advanced models, while Ninety One's natural resources head forecasts structurally higher Brent crude around $80 for years due to war-induced inventory draws and a lasting geopolitical premium. The BOJ raised rates to a 31-year high, and disappointing Chinese retail sales added to growth concerns.

  • US-Iran MOU aims to reopen Strait of Hormuz by Friday, but allies and markets remain skeptical.
  • Global stock rally cools as investors await deal details and monitor G7 summit.
  • Oil prices dip, but Ninety One's Paul Gooden sees structurally higher Brent at $80 over the next 2-3 years.
  • Bank of Singapore's Mehvish Ayub warns AI stocks face risk from possible US export controls on advanced AI models.
  • BOJ raises benchmark rate to 1%, highest since 1995, and signals further policy normalization.
  • China's May retail sales contract for the first time since COVID, highlighting weak domestic demand.
  • Gulf states reconsider security partnerships after Iran exposed vulnerabilities via the Hormuz chokepoint.
  • G7 leaders meet in France with Ukraine also on the agenda, focusing on US involvement.
Ideas
Mehvish Ayub Head of Managed Solutions, Bank of Singapore 21:04
AI export controls threaten capex thesis
Potential US restrictions on foreign access to advanced AI models like Anthropic's could undermine the assumption that these models will be available globally, which underpins the massive capex investments by AI companies. This poses a risk to AI stocks, and investors should be wary of overexposure to the sector.
Artificial Intelligence sector MED
Paul Gooden Ninety One, Natural Resources Head 32:03
Structurally higher oil for years ahead
The war has created an oil market hangover with global inventories drawn by 1 billion barrels, requiring refill and driving demand up. Additionally, Iran's proven capability to close Hormuz adds a $5-10 geopolitical risk premium, while U.S. shale faces tougher geology limiting supply growth. Combined, these factors point to structurally higher oil prices over the next 2-3 years, with midcycle Brent reaching $80 per barrel versus $70 pre-war.
BNO HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 16, 2026, features Mehvish Ayub, Paul Gooden discussing Artificial Intelligence sector, BNO. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mehvish Ayub, Paul Gooden  · Tickers: Artificial Intelligence sector, BNO