Su Subprime Consumer Finance Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

Ben Hunt argues current US consumer conditions are extremely weak, especially for the lower-income K-shaped economy, while forward-looking market narratives about a consumer spending rebound are unusually crowded and bullish. He sees the market as ahead of itself and thinks the asymmetric risk is a scheduled macro or earnings event that forces a reality check; he would wait for the bullish consumer-expectation story to roll over before using options for convex downside or volatility exposure. He cites Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and subprime finance companies as examples of consumer-linked stocks that have run on optimistic expectations.