BS BSP Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

$BSP trades at ~48x forward FCF, has ~zero GAAP net income, ~$370M annual interest costs, 5–6% organic growth, and 91–95% net revenue retention. 318.5M shares unlock on/around November 3; low float and short squeeze have inflated the price far above fundamental value, creating a time-sensitive short setup. Short the overvalued roll-up via Oct puts; valuation requires perfect execution, and the lock-up overhang should trigger re-rating. Short squeeze continues; IPO momentum persists; unlock timing is approximate; consumer software brands may stabilize organic decline.

BSP IPO at $29, pumped to $40, now $36; author cites Italian tech failure, predatory business model buying dead companies, dark patterns, poor reviews. The author believes the stock is artificially propped and will collapse as fundamentals (negative cash flow, declining user trust) catch up, creating a profitable short opportunity. Short BSP based on thesis that valuation ($18B) is unjustified for a roll-up of distressed assets with no genuine innovation. Short squeeze possible due to high borrow rates; company could pivot or demonstrate cash flow; IPO lockup expiry may already be priced in.

Bending Spoons operates a unique platform that acquires under-monetized digital businesses and deeply integrates them to improve technology, monetization, and efficiency. AI has become a major tailwind, dramatically increasing revenue per employee from ~$1M to ~$4M, with further potential from converting only 2% of 500M monthly active users to paying. The company has doubled roughly every year, has a pipeline of over a thousand target businesses, and maintains a long-term view focused on 10-20 year value creation.