The market has already priced in a 15-17% price increase from a recovery in 15-17 Chinese cities, but if the recovery broadens to 70 cities, there is potential for further valuation multiple expansion in Chinese property developers, supported by the government's urban renewal program of 4-5 trillion investment.
Shanghai and Shenzhen property markets are at an inflection point and are expected to lead a recovery, with prices projected to rise 15% from end of 2025 to end of 2028, driven by fundamental factors like demographics, income, supply, and affordability, similar to Hong Kong's recovery.