William Taylor

"Putin funds this war by selling oil and gas... President Trump is shown that he knows how to crack down on the shuttle fleet... that would be a big hit to the Russian ability." Taylor argues that the only way to force Putin to the table is economic strangulation. If the US enforces sanctions strictly against the "shadow fleet" (which moves oil to India/China), a significant portion of global oil supply is removed from the market. Reduced supply in a "grinding" war scenario leads to higher crude prices. Long Energy Futures and Majors as a hedge against stricter sanction enforcement. Trump could opt for a "drill baby drill" policy domestically that floods supply, offsetting Russian cuts.

"Putin has been dragging it out because he wants to grind away at the Ukrainians... He thinks Putin thinks that this grind will eventually allow him to win." The base case presented is not a quick resolution, but a prolonged "grind." Persistent geopolitical instability, combined with the friction of "America First" diplomacy potentially clashing with European interests, creates a continued environment for safe-haven assets. Long Gold as a geopolitical hedge against a prolonged war of attrition. A definitive ceasefire or a strengthening US Dollar due to US domestic policy shifts.

"The second piece, the second screw is long range weapons for the Ukrainians. These are the Tomahawks... Zelensky is building up the capabilities himself... as well as the Europeans." Taylor explicitly names "Tomahawks" (manufactured by RTX Corporation) as a necessary escalation tool. Furthermore, the admission that the war is "dragging out" and Europeans are "stepping up" implies a secular bull market for defense contractors, specifically those making long-range precision fires. Long Defense Primes (specifically RTX) and the broad Defense sector. A sudden, unexpected peace deal brokered by the Trump administration that freezes lines of contact and reduces weapon shipments.

"The second piece, the second screw is long range weapons for the Ukrainians. These are the Tomahawks... Zelensky is building up the capabilities himself... as well as the Europeans." Taylor explicitly names "Tomahawks" (manufactured by RTX Corporation) as a necessary escalation tool. Furthermore, the admission that the war is "dragging out" and Europeans are "stepping up" implies a secular bull market for defense contractors, specifically those making long-range precision fires. Long Defense Primes (specifically RTX) and the broad Defense sector. A sudden, unexpected peace deal brokered by the Trump administration that freezes lines of contact and reduces weapon shipments.

"The second piece, the second screw is long range weapons for the Ukrainians. These are the Tomahawks... Zelensky is building up the capabilities himself... as well as the Europeans." Taylor explicitly names "Tomahawks" (manufactured by RTX Corporation) as a necessary escalation tool. Furthermore, the admission that the war is "dragging out" and Europeans are "stepping up" implies a secular bull market for defense contractors, specifically those making long-range precision fires. Long Defense Primes (specifically RTX) and the broad Defense sector. A sudden, unexpected peace deal brokered by the Trump administration that freezes lines of contact and reduces weapon shipments.

"Putin funds this war by selling oil and gas... President Trump is shown that he knows how to crack down on the shuttle fleet... that would be a big hit to the Russian ability." Taylor argues that the only way to force Putin to the table is economic strangulation. If the US enforces sanctions strictly against the "shadow fleet" (which moves oil to India/China), a significant portion of global oil supply is removed from the market. Reduced supply in a "grinding" war scenario leads to higher crude prices. Long Energy Futures and Majors as a hedge against stricter sanction enforcement. Trump could opt for a "drill baby drill" policy domestically that floods supply, offsetting Russian cuts.

"Putin funds this war by selling oil and gas... President Trump is shown that he knows how to crack down on the shuttle fleet... that would be a big hit to the Russian ability." Taylor argues that the only way to force Putin to the table is economic strangulation. If the US enforces sanctions strictly against the "shadow fleet" (which moves oil to India/China), a significant portion of global oil supply is removed from the market. Reduced supply in a "grinding" war scenario leads to higher crude prices. Long Energy Futures and Majors as a hedge against stricter sanction enforcement. Trump could opt for a "drill baby drill" policy domestically that floods supply, offsetting Russian cuts.