MSFT's valuation (fwd P/E <20, PEG ~1) is at lows while the company maintains double-digit profit growth and a ~39% margin, with revenue up ~$80B and earnings up ~$30B since late 2021. The market's negative sentiment ("stagnant hate") has pushed the price back to late-2021 levels, creating a disconnect between price and fundamental business growth, similar to GOOG's setup the previous year. This disconnect, combined with a durable moat (high switching costs for products) and insider buying, presents a long-term value opportunity. Growth could slow more than expected, making the current valuation less attractive. Macroeconomic factors could pressure tech spending. AI investments may not yield expected returns.
MSFT's valuation (fwd P/E <20, PEG ~1) is at lows while the company maintains double-digit profit growth and a ~39% margin, with revenue up ~$80B and earnings up ~$30B since late 2021. The market's negative sentiment ("stagnant hate") has pushed the price back to late-2021 levels, creating a disconnect between price and fundamental business growth, similar to GOOG's setup the previous year. This disconnect, combined with a durable moat (high switching costs for products) and insider buying, presents a long-term value opportunity. Growth could slow more than expected, making the current valuation less attractive. Macroeconomic factors could pressure tech spending. AI investments may not yield expected returns.