The author argues Trump's policies will push the market into a bear market, citing the claim that oil will only fall 'after the election' as evidence of a deliberate playbook. The mechanism is that oil and yields keep rising until November 4, dragging equities down, so the author advises shorting every bounce. The catalyst is the November 4 election date, after which the author implies conditions may change. Main risk is that the predicted decline does not materialize or reverses earlier.