VIX and midterm seasonality signal near-term bottom
The author observes the VIX creeping up and S&P futures green overnight as a setup for a red day, and cites historical midterm-year peak-to-trough drawdowns of roughly 17-18% over the last 30 years. Based on this, the author plans to deploy cash back into shares around mid-September through mid-October, signaling the bottom is nearing and expecting a bull run to resume by Thanksgiving. The author explicitly avoids options due to a gambling addiction and holds shares long term, with the main risk being mistiming the exact bottom.