u/Toankst

Management has not sold shares since 2024; largest holder SRS hasn’t sold since 2023. Management aggressively bought back 73% of shares since 2010, signaling deep conviction the stock is undervalued. Pentwater, now a >10% insider, is prohibited from selling newly acquired shares until at least September–October 2026 under SEC Section 16(b) short-swing profit rules. With Pentwater’s selling pressure removed for months, and no other insider selling, the stock’s recent 20%+ drawdown from $200+ to ~$180 (per comments) may have been overdone. This creates an opportunity for price recovery as supply/demand dynamics improve and short sellers may cover. Long $CAR as a medium-term mean-reversion play supported by insider conviction and a temporary lock-up of a large shareholder. The author expects a rally similar to prior events. Pentwater could hedge with derivatives or find a legal workaround; overall market downturn could override stock-specific catalysts; company fundamentals (earnings, rental demand) could deteriorate; short interest may not re-ignite if no squeeze catalyst.