Firefly has deep national security ties (Northrop Grumman joint development, SciTec acquisition for Golden Dome) and a growing lunar presence (Blue Ghost lander + Elytra contracts), with backlog ~$1.4B vs. Intuitive Machines. The market undervalues FLY relative to peers like RKLB (10x its market cap) and IM (similar revenue but less diversity). Defense spending and lunar commercialization provide multi-year tailwinds. Long FLY as a multi-sector space play with high upside from Eclipse medium-lift rocket, government contracts, and potential end-to-end lunar services. Cash burn on R&D for Eclipse; medium-lift market saturation; lack of recurring revenue; execution risk on upcoming launches.
Firefly has deep national security ties (Northrop Grumman joint development, SciTec acquisition for Golden Dome) and a growing lunar presence (Blue Ghost lander + Elytra contracts), with backlog ~$1.4B vs. Intuitive Machines. The market undervalues FLY relative to peers like RKLB (10x its market cap) and IM (similar revenue but less diversity). Defense spending and lunar commercialization provide multi-year tailwinds. Long FLY as a multi-sector space play with high upside from Eclipse medium-lift rocket, government contracts, and potential end-to-end lunar services. Cash burn on R&D for Eclipse; medium-lift market saturation; lack of recurring revenue; execution risk on upcoming launches.