u/TheJok3r20

Management still guides $990M revenue, $380M EBITDA, $145M FCF despite losing 10-13% revenue from Avis; market cap is ~$700M. If remaining customers (Hertz, Enterprise) remain stable, the business still generates >$100M FCF, implying single-digit FCF yield expansion – a classic value opportunity if the sell-off is overdone. The 70% drop reflects worst-case scenario (all major customers leave), but current guidance and balance sheet (high debt but not distressed) suggest the market is mispricing the probability of recovery. Further contract losses (Hertz/Enterprise renegotiate or leave) or inability to service ~$1B net debt could trigger distress; the debt load limits downside protection.