The author, a commodity trader, argues USO is performing excellently right now as oil prices and long bond yields rip higher while the US faces $40T in debt. The mechanism is that rising oil prices directly lift the oil ETF, and the macro backdrop of debt and yields supports the move. No specific catalyst or timeframe is given; the main risk is a reversal in oil prices or yields.
The author argues that if the Fed does not raise rates, gold will rip upwards, implying a rate-driven tailwind for the metal. The mechanism is that unchanged or lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, supporting its price. The author also dismisses Warsh as someone who will only talk and not act, reinforcing the view that policy stays loose. No specific timeframe or risk is given.
The author argues that if the Fed does not raise rates, silver will rip upwards alongside gold. The mechanism is that unchanged or lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, supporting prices. The author also dismisses Warsh as all talk, implying no hawkish action. No specific timeframe or risk is given.