Euro area June CPI dropped to 2.8% (vs 3.2% prior, below 3% estimate). If the EU’s inflation surprised lower despite the Strait of Hormuz disruption, US CPI may also come in below expectations, signaling peak inflation. Broad market rally expected on disinflation narrative. US CPI data could diverge due to different energy/rent dynamics; Fed may still hike.
Euro area June CPI dropped to 2.8% (vs 3.2% prior, below 3% estimate). If the EU’s inflation surprised lower despite the Strait of Hormuz disruption, US CPI may also come in below expectations, signaling peak inflation. Broad market rally expected on disinflation narrative. US CPI data could diverge due to different energy/rent dynamics; Fed may still hike.
Author argues Amazon is at an all-time high, so "no matter what, stock will fall after earnings." The all-time high creates a "sell the news" pattern, with limited upside and potential for disappointment. Short Amazon into earnings expecting a post-announcement drop. Better-than-expected earnings, market rotation into value, AWS growth surprises.
Author argues Amazon is at an all-time high, so "no matter what, stock will fall after earnings." The all-time high creates a "sell the news" pattern, with limited upside and potential for disappointment. Short Amazon into earnings expecting a post-announcement drop. Better-than-expected earnings, market rotation into value, AWS growth surprises.
Same reasoning as Amazon – Google is at an all-time high and the author expects a post-earnings decline. The all-time high setup makes the stock vulnerable to a profit-taking drop even on a beat. Short Google alongside Amazon for the "fall after earnings" thesis. Strong ad revenue rebound, cloud growth, AI narrative boosting sentiment.
Same reasoning as Amazon – Google is at an all-time high and the author expects a post-earnings decline. The all-time high setup makes the stock vulnerable to a profit-taking drop even on a beat. Short Google alongside Amazon for the "fall after earnings" thesis. Strong ad revenue rebound, cloud growth, AI narrative boosting sentiment.
Author states Meta has lowest PE among the five and "already confirmed beat" with 30% ad revenue growth vs Google's 18%. The combination of low valuation and superior growth creates a favorable risk/reward for earnings. Bet on Meta’s earnings beat and positive price reaction. Earnings miss, broader tech sell-off, increased competition from TikTok/Reels monetization.
Author states Meta has lowest PE among the five and "already confirmed beat" with 30% ad revenue growth vs Google's 18%. The combination of low valuation and superior growth creates a favorable risk/reward for earnings. Bet on Meta’s earnings beat and positive price reaction. Earnings miss, broader tech sell-off, increased competition from TikTok/Reels monetization.