Calls
1
u/SaltyVegan69
Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+6.7%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 11
$35.88
+6.7%
El Niño is confirmed by NOAA/CPC and expected to strengthen into winter 2026/27, potentially harming West African cocoa production (concentrated in Ivory Coast/Ghana) at a critical crop development window. The market is still focused on the old 2025/26 season, but the real risk lies in the 2026/27 main crop (tested Sept–Oct). Ivory Coast has slowed forward sales due to El Niño concerns, and major processor Barry Callebaut warns prices could spike. Long cocoa via US-listed ETN NIB (or futures) to capture a tail-risk event that crowded shorts (net short ~21k contracts) may be forced to cover. El Niño fails to materialize or is too weak; West Africa sees normal/above-average rains; 2026/27 arrivals are strong; cocoa demand softens; ETN contango decay erodes returns.
El Niño is confirmed by NOAA/CPC and expected to strengthen into winter 2026/27, potentially harming West African cocoa production (concentrated in Ivory Coast/Ghana) at a critical crop development window. The market is still focused on the old 2025/26 season, but the real risk lies in the 2026/27 main crop (tested Sept–Oct). Ivory Coast has slowed forward sales due to El Niño concerns, and major processor Barry Callebaut warns prices could spike. Long cocoa via US-listed ETN NIB (or futures) to capture a tail-risk event that crowded shorts (net short ~21k contracts) may be forced to cover. El Niño fails to materialize or is too weak; West Africa sees normal/above-average rains; 2026/27 arrivals are strong; cocoa demand softens; ETN contango decay erodes returns.
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u/SaltyVegan69 has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since June 2026. Most covered: NIB.
