u/Really0riginal

The author is bullish on NVDA with a $300 price target for this year, implying about 60% upside, based on a DCF and expected hyperscaler AI capex growth from roughly $423B to $660B. They argue NVDA is becoming a structural AI compounder through diversification, partnerships, and product cycles, with catalysts including Vera Rubin sales, a new chip unveiling at GTC in March 2026, and expansion into full self-driving, digital twins, and robotics. Main stated risks are competitors gaining traction, uncertain China revenue that could swing 10-15%, and memory as a near-term bottleneck.

Reddit is currently undervalued due to market sentiment and a misunderstanding of its business model, which the author believes is transitioning into a high-growth advertising platform. The thesis relies on strong organic traffic growth, international expansion, and the network effect attracting larger advertising budgets. The primary risks include potential competition from other social media platforms and the need to consistently demonstrate strong KPIs to retain new advertisers.

The author argues Meta is undervalued today partly due to a $15.9 billion accounting charge taken in Q3 2025, presenting a good entry opportunity with a potential 71%+ return to a $1150 price target this year. The thesis rests on expected free cash flow growth starting in 2027 as AI spending begins to pay off through AI products and services, with 2026 FCF estimated at $55 billion and 2028 at $76 billion. Key catalysts include improving Instagram/Facebook engagement and ad returns from AI, plus optionality from Threads, WhatsApp, glasses, and subscriptions not baked into numbers. Main risks are that the street may dislike near-term FCF spend on chips and data centers, and that a new social media competitor could emerge.