u/Potential-Rise4152

The author explicitly leans long CATL over BYD because CATL's supplier model provides a wider moat: it sells batteries to Tesla, BMW, Mercedes, VW and 20+ other customers, while BYD's vertical integration makes other automakers reluctant to buy from a competitor. CATL's scale (37.9% global share), 2024 margin expansion despite lower revenue, RMB 300B+ cash, and technology pushes in sodium-ion/condensed matter support pricing power. The author cites battery demand growing from ~1,000 GWh to 2,500+ GWh by 2030 as a catalyst, with the main risks being battery commoditization/margin compression and US-China geopolitical/tariff risk.

Author argues Noble Corp is a long on the same supply-constrained offshore drilling thesis, trading at ~33% of ~$12-15B fleet replacement cost, with 2023 EBITDA of $810M and 2024 guidance of $925M-$1.025B (+15%). It has 16 floaters and 13 premium jackups, Maersk family owns 19%, and demand drivers are Brazil, Guyana, West Africa, and energy security. Risks are oil price collapse, recession, and faster supply response.

Author argues Valaris is a long because the offshore drilling supply/demand setup is highly asymmetric, with the global floater fleet about 50% smaller than a decade ago, zero new rig orders, and a supply gap that cannot close for at least 3-5 years. VAL trades at roughly 12% of the ~$25B cost to rebuild its fleet, has 2023 net income of $865M and backlog of $3.9B (+60% YoY), with John Fredriksen owning 9%. Catalysts cited are demand from Brazil, Guyana, West Africa, and post-Ukraine energy security plus 90-95% premium rig utilization, while main stated risks are oil price collapse, recession, and faster supply response.