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The author argues that because open models trail closed ones by only about six months, companies will increasingly buy their own servers rather than pay large sums to AI vendors like Anthropic. In that scenario AI software business models collapse toward web-hosting economics with thin margins, while demand for the underlying compute and semiconductor hardware persists. The author concludes investors should buy semiconductor stocks and short AI companies, though no specific catalyst or timeframe is given and the main risk is that closed models maintain a durable capability lead.