u/PalaMayne

Multiple supply catalysts (Iran, Venezuela, US, potential Russia) are set to add significant barrels, while demand growth is limited by EV adoption, efficiency gains, and China’s import reduction. Sustained oversupply exerts persistent downward pressure on crude prices, creating a multi-year window favorable for short positions in oil ETFs and futures. Short USO to capture structural decline in oil prices driven by supply glut and demand moderation. OPEC+ production cuts, faster-than-expected global growth, geopolitical delays (e.g., Iran deal collapse), or unexpected supply disruptions (e.g., new conflicts) could invalidate the thesis.