The author implies that if current panic is similar to last year's unfounded doom, the market (S&P 500) will resume its upward trend after a period of fear. The S&P 500 is only down ~4% YTD despite 5 weeks of crisis talk, which the author calls "pretty standard." The discrepancy between extreme online sentiment and moderate market action suggests a potential buying opportunity if the fear is overdone. Fade the excessive bearish sentiment and buy the broad market dip. A legitimate, unpriced energy supply shock materializes as feared by commenters, causing a deeper market decline.
The author implies that if current panic is similar to last year's unfounded doom, the market (S&P 500) will resume its upward trend after a period of fear. The S&P 500 is only down ~4% YTD despite 5 weeks of crisis talk, which the author calls "pretty standard." The discrepancy between extreme online sentiment and moderate market action suggests a potential buying opportunity if the fear is overdone. Fade the excessive bearish sentiment and buy the broad market dip. A legitimate, unpriced energy supply shock materializes as feared by commenters, causing a deeper market decline.