u/Ok-Birthday-2096 5.0 1 idea

The author held a long oil position based on the premise that blocked shipping routes and destroyed infrastructure should constrain supply and raise prices. The market price action contradicted this physical supply thesis, creating a potential opportunity if the paper-market disconnect corrects. The trade rationale was a geopolitical supply shock play that failed due to other market factors. It's now a watchlist item to see if fundamentals reassert. Continued U.S. naval presence easing transit fears, potential diplomatic resolutions (peace talks), and paper market manipulation/sentiment overriding physical shortages.