u/nbaphilly17

Author argues CXMT is a legitimate commodity DRAM competitor but not an immediate threat to SK Hynix’s HBM3E/HBM4, advanced server memory, custom HBM, advanced packaging, and enterprise SSD franchise. The market is pricing a plausible 2028-2030 competitive risk as if SK Hynix’s HBM leadership were already impaired, creating a possible mispricing. The main stated invalidation is CXMT winning meaningful server DDR5 outside China or demonstrating competitive HBM3E/HBM4 yields.

Wendy’s has $3.2B in Q1 system-wide sales, $460-480M FY2022 adjusted EBITDA, and a $1.2B market cap – a ~2.6x EV/EBITDA multiple (including $4B debt) that is deeply discounted. This low valuation, combined with a 78% drawdown and Trian (Nelson Peltz) seeking take-private funding, creates a buyout arbitrage opportunity where the stock could rise to $12+ (or more on a deal). Long WEN as a value play with a meme catalyst – the fundamental discount and activist/buyout interest could re-rate the stock regardless of short-term hype. High debt ($4B) raises bankruptcy risk (per commenters); rising food costs and margin compression may worsen; meme-fueled volatility could lead to a sharp reversal.

Spero Therapeutics is a long because its oral carbapenem tebipenem is nearing a June 18 FDA ruling, with the author arguing approval is almost assured after a strong trial and GSK handling ex-US development and sales. Approval would unlock $76 million launch and $25 million later milestone payments plus royalties, while Spero's $56 million cash and potential commercial/sales milestones support a $5-$7 base-case value versus the current $3 price. The stated swing factors are FDA labeling restrictions, which will dictate commercial success, and the company's request for 120 million new shares, which the author flags as odd though possibly tied to strategic deals. Timeframe is the June 18 FDA catalyst, with no longer horizon specified.