US added 172k jobs in May, beating expectations, while European capital flows into US assets due to higher risk tolerance. Continued labor market strength and foreign inflows support US equities, making SPY calls a bet on sustained economic resilience. The author explicitly holds SPY calls and expects the US economy to avoid recession in the near term, driven by cultural/historical capital flows. Inflation accelerating (4.2% CPI) could force Fed tightening; rising inequality may trigger a jobs crisis; any negative surprise in employment data would invalidate the thesis.
US added 172k jobs in May, beating expectations, while European capital flows into US assets due to higher risk tolerance. Continued labor market strength and foreign inflows support US equities, making SPY calls a bet on sustained economic resilience. The author explicitly holds SPY calls and expects the US economy to avoid recession in the near term, driven by cultural/historical capital flows. Inflation accelerating (4.2% CPI) could force Fed tightening; rising inequality may trigger a jobs crisis; any negative surprise in employment data would invalidate the thesis.