Calls
2
u/MostlyH2O
Reddit r/thetagang
Win Rate
50.0%
return
+0.4%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Sep 11
$154.75
-0.1%
The author argues oil is bid and not going away, citing the confirmed shutdown of the East/West pipeline and Bloomberg speculation that China is re-entering the refined products market. The mechanism is reduced supply plus returning Asian demand tightening the crude market. No explicit timeframe or risk is given.
Commodities
Short
Sep 09
$81.58
+0.8%
The author argues that US debt is being financed by rolling into shorter-term debt, which is fine for now since average maturity is on the higher end of the typical range. However, once average duration falls to 2-3 sigma on the low side, conditions become dicey and that is the trigger to short TLT. The mechanism is that shortening duration signals rising refinancing risk, pressuring long-duration Treasuries. Main risk is that the duration threshold may not be reached for a long time.
Bonds & Rates
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u/MostlyH2O has 2 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 2 tickers since September 2026. Most covered: TLT, BNO.
