Calls
1
u/MarsRedWolf
Reddit r/Vitards
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+11.6%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 26
$237.10
+11.6%
Cheniere’s Q1 2026 earnings miss was purely a non-cash mark-to-market paper loss; physical delivery will replace that with realized EBITDA as gas input costs drop. The 20% global LNG supply gap from Qatar’s damaged facility (3-5 year recovery) combined with Cheniere’s fixed-price export contracts and 10-15% spot sales at massive spreads (US $2.88 vs Europe $14.50, Asia $18.81) ensures super-normal margins. The market is ignoring structural supply constraints and accounting noise, creating a compelling long opportunity as the paper loss rolls off and cash flows materialize. Oil price volatility spilling into gas markets, new LNG export capacity from competitors, geopolitical resolution in Qatar, or a sudden drop in European/Asian demand.
Cheniere’s Q1 2026 earnings miss was purely a non-cash mark-to-market paper loss; physical delivery will replace that with realized EBITDA as gas input costs drop. The 20% global LNG supply gap from Qatar’s damaged facility (3-5 year recovery) combined with Cheniere’s fixed-price export contracts and 10-15% spot sales at massive spreads (US $2.88 vs Europe $14.50, Asia $18.81) ensures super-normal margins. The market is ignoring structural supply constraints and accounting noise, creating a compelling long opportunity as the paper loss rolls off and cash flows materialize. Oil price volatility spilling into gas markets, new LNG export capacity from competitors, geopolitical resolution in Qatar, or a sudden drop in European/Asian demand.
Oil & Gas
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u/MarsRedWolf has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since May 2026. Most covered: LNG.
