u/MarsRedWolf

Cheniere’s Q1 2026 earnings miss was purely a non-cash mark-to-market paper loss; physical delivery will replace that with realized EBITDA as gas input costs drop. The 20% global LNG supply gap from Qatar’s damaged facility (3-5 year recovery) combined with Cheniere’s fixed-price export contracts and 10-15% spot sales at massive spreads (US $2.88 vs Europe $14.50, Asia $18.81) ensures super-normal margins. The market is ignoring structural supply constraints and accounting noise, creating a compelling long opportunity as the paper loss rolls off and cash flows materialize. Oil price volatility spilling into gas markets, new LNG export capacity from competitors, geopolitical resolution in Qatar, or a sudden drop in European/Asian demand.