u/lonelysocial

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Feb 2026
Calls
1
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+13.4%
Calls 1 1 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Win Rate 100% Long 1 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 0%
90d 0%
Average Return +13.4% Long Return +13.4% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -29.2%
30d -36.8%
90d -19.9%
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Result
Result
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Ticker
Side
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Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
PGY 1ST Pagaya T... Pagaya Technologies...
Long
Feb 04
$18.19
+13.4%
Capital-light forward-flow shift makes PGY cheap value play
The author argues PGY is a spring-loaded value play because its transition from ABS-dependent funding to forward-flow/pre-funded structures reduces funding-freeze risk and first-loss exposure, making it capital-light. This should lift FRLPC margins into the 40-45% range, cover G&A/SBC and drive GAAP profitability by 2025/2026, making the stock cheap on Price/FRLPC. The main stated risks are adverse selection if bank AI improves and macro correlation causing defaults to outpace excess spread if unemployment spikes above 8%.
Payments & Fintech
REDDIT
Showing 1 of 1 calls · sorted by mentions

u/lonelysocial has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since February 2026. Most covered: PGY.

Historical call returns are modeled from recorded ideas and stored prices, not actual brokerage portfolio returns. Check the evaluated call set and horizon; past results do not establish future prediction accuracy. Explore our data and methodology