u/LastFirst22

Author expects a broad market pullback, arguing small caps topped around May 8 with negative RSI/ROC divergence while rising rates and a stronger dollar pressure small caps and regional banks. He says the rally is being carried by a handful of mega-cap tech/AI names and that hot CPI/PPI likely rule out near-term Fed cuts. He has been slowly adding bearish positions and bought an IWM July 260/275 put spread for $4.00, expecting the rollover after NVDA's May 20 earnings. Main stated risk is a dovish Fed shift that weakens the dollar and broadens participation, or mega-cap tech continuing to carry the market higher. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.

Author plans to aggressively add QQQ puts as part of his bearish market call, citing a light-volume rally that previously preceded a sharp drop in December and a mature QQQ hourly 5-wave impulse with bearish RSI/ROC divergence. He expects sellers to eventually step in and produce a powerful decline. Stated risk: there might be one more slight push higher before the reversal. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.

Author applies Gann Square of 19 and Gann angles to the S&P 500 ETF (VOO), arguing the 45-degree uptrend line from the April 7, 2025 low is being tested and a break would signal the bullish trend is failing. He expects a broader market pullback, with any bounce between Feb 23 and 27 likely a bull trap before selling resumes.