MSTR burned through two-thirds of cash paying dividends and completed a $1.5B debt repurchase, while holding 843,738 BTC. The company’s “never sell Bitcoin” promise becomes untenable if cash flow dries up, forcing liquidations that would crater both BTC and MSTR stock. A structural short via deep-out-of-the-money puts capitalizes on the likely collapse in MSTR’s stock price as the crypto house of cards folds. Bitcoin price could rally further, MSTR could raise new capital or issue more debt to avoid selling, and the long-dated put (Jun 2027) carries high time decay and low liquidity.
MSTR burned through two-thirds of cash paying dividends and completed a $1.5B debt repurchase, while holding 843,738 BTC. The company’s “never sell Bitcoin” promise becomes untenable if cash flow dries up, forcing liquidations that would crater both BTC and MSTR stock. A structural short via deep-out-of-the-money puts capitalizes on the likely collapse in MSTR’s stock price as the crypto house of cards folds. Bitcoin price could rally further, MSTR could raise new capital or issue more debt to avoid selling, and the long-dated put (Jun 2027) carries high time decay and low liquidity.