The author argues that a global recession would not tank energy prices because people still need to drive, fly, ship goods, and farm, so energy demand is relatively inelastic. They cite that energy dramatically outperformed tech during the Great Recession as evidence. The main risk is that a severe demand shock could still depress energy prices despite the author's inelasticity argument.
Hyperscaler profits inflated by circular AI financing
The author claims US megacap hyperscalers are far less profitable than reported because of circular financing, with inflated OpenAI and Anthropic valuations propping them up. He expects the pain to surface in earnings, though he concedes it likely won't happen anytime soon, and cites delayed IPOs as corroborating evidence. The main risk is timing: the thesis may take many quarters to play out.
Energy security push will lift clean energy ETF ICLN
The author argues the energy crisis is forcing countries to take energy security seriously, which will benefit clean energy broadly and ICLN specifically. The mechanism is policy and investment flows into clean energy driven by energy security concerns, with the author expecting the move 'sooner than later'. No specific catalyst date or risk is given beyond the general timing uncertainty.