u/JoeInOR 5.0 3 ideas

True FCF yield of 7%, 5-year FCF CAGR of 40%, stock down -50% over the past year. Wall Street assumes HR software cycle dead, but the company compounds cash aggressively and the moat is intact. Buying a high-quality compounding machine at half price; market overreaction creates margin of safety. HR software demand could structurally decline if AI agents replace seat-based models; customer concentration or macro slowdown.

True FCF yield 7%, stock down -46%, top-line growth ~9% with proprietary stock market data. LLMs need structured context – FactSet owns the irreplaceable financial data moat; market punishes the sector indiscriminately. "AI context" play – data monopoly with steady growth, overlooked by the market. Competition from Bloomberg terminal or AI-powered data aggregators; slowdown in financial services spending.

Palantir uses massive Stock-Based Compensation ($473M), diluting shareholders and masking true labor costs, with SBC accounting for over 1/3 of its adjusted FCF. The market values PLTR as a high-margin software/AI monopoly, but its "forward-deployed engineer" model is a high-cost consultancy. When the dilution and true business model are recognized, the valuation should contract. PLTR is a momentum trap with a valuation unsupported by its underlying labor-intensive, dilutive business structure. Government contract growth accelerates; AI tools genuinely improve PLTR's margins without making its service obsolete; market continues to ignore dilution in favor of narrative.