u/jerryzhc

The author argues Rocket Lab's Neutron is a clean-sheet medium-lift reusable rocket with attached fairing, methalox engines and conservative engine margins, positioning it as the point-to-point 'Boeing 787' versus Starship's 'A380' hub-and-spoke model. He contends Starship's actual payload capacity is below published specs and in-orbit refueling is unproven, so Neutron becomes the default second option even if Starship succeeds. The catalyst is the first Neutron flight expected by end of 2026, with the stated worst case being that NSSL avoids monopolies and Neutron remains the second option.

The author has held NVDA since 2017 and still holds some today, believing NVDA will continue to dominate AI hardware. The author trimmed a large portion of the position because most of the upside is already priced in, implying limited further re-rating despite the dominant AI hardware franchise. No explicit catalyst or time horizon is given beyond continued AI hardware leadership.