Calls
1
u/Iamthebigwig
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+14.6%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 02
$4.17
+14.6%
VRRM lost ~$140M in Avis revenue but secured $1.15B in new government contracts (NYC $998M, Hawaii $160M) that haven't yet scaled; Q1 2026 net income positive at $26.7M. The 70% price drop prices in bankruptcy risk, but the company still guides $985M–$995M revenue and $380M–$385M Adjusted EBITDA, implying a deeply compressed EV/EBITDA multiple. Buying a cash-flow-positive technology monopoly at a generational discount, with a clear catalyst as government contract revenue ramps and cost restructuring protects margins. Avis may accelerate litigation or further contracts could churn; government contract implementation delays; new CEO may not execute cost cuts as quickly as expected.
VRRM lost ~$140M in Avis revenue but secured $1.15B in new government contracts (NYC $998M, Hawaii $160M) that haven't yet scaled; Q1 2026 net income positive at $26.7M. The 70% price drop prices in bankruptcy risk, but the company still guides $985M–$995M revenue and $380M–$385M Adjusted EBITDA, implying a deeply compressed EV/EBITDA multiple. Buying a cash-flow-positive technology monopoly at a generational discount, with a clear catalyst as government contract revenue ramps and cost restructuring protects margins. Avis may accelerate litigation or further contracts could churn; government contract implementation delays; new CEO may not execute cost cuts as quickly as expected.
Construction & Infrastructure
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u/Iamthebigwig has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since June 2026. Most covered: VRRM.
