u/hv876

The author argues Treasury buybacks (raised from $4B to $6B) are failing to keep long-term yields down because the bond market is not buying it, with yields rebounding the day after each announcement. He notes the 2-year yield historically tracks the Fed funds rate and that when the 2-year leads, the FOMC typically hikes to realign, implying upward rate pressure unless government spending stops. The catalyst is the coming FOMC decision; the main risk is that the Fed instead holds or cuts, or that buybacks eventually succeed in capping yields.