u/HippoLover85

The author argues Micron and other memory makers' margins will revert to reasonable levels, which will crush their stocks. He contends that high-end inference will eventually run mostly on ASICs from players like Groq and Taalas that do not need HBM, so memory demand for AI is structurally weaker than assumed. He puts roughly 18 months on the memory makers' time in the sun before FUD and smart-money selling begin. Main risk he acknowledges is that AI demand stays big and architectures keep requiring HBM.

The author says he never intended to hold AMD this long, originally planning to exit after the Raven Ridge launch, but the position kept getting better so he stayed in. He still favors AMD because it has good AI exposure, and his other preferred ideas also revolve around AI. He expresses no specific catalyst or time horizon, and his main stated concern is that investing has become a wild ride dominated by Trump tweets and 24/7 AI FUD/hype rather than fundamental research.