u/HaywardUCuddleme

The author argues PYPL is mispriced at about $41, with the market pricing it as a permanently broken payments utility while the company remains a scaled network with room for steady improvement. They model a base case of roughly 5% revenue growth, about 18% net margin, and mid-teens ROE, driven by cross-border mix, cost discipline, and buybacks at depressed prices, supporting a DCF value near $89 with a $55-$125 range. They say 2026 watch items are net revenue growth closer to 5% than 3%, evidence of cost control showing in margins, and continued share count reduction. Main stated risks are competition and pricing pressure, regulation and compliance costs, credit losses in BNPL/consumer credit, and share-based compensation or slower buybacks diluting the per-share story.