u/HatedMoats
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Visual Insights
Data-driven breakdowns of mentions and mindshare
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 20
$104.27
-10.5%
A detailed DCF model, using assumptions of strong but decelerating revenue growth (from 20.5% down to 4.5% over 10 years) and expanding GAAP EBIT margins (from 15% to 22.5%), yields an intrinsic value of ~$160 per share. The current market price of $104.27 is significantly below the calculated intrinsic value, providing a 35% margin of safety. This discrepancy suggests the market is overly pessimistic about NOW's long-term cash generation potential. The company is undervalued due to its entrenched position within customer workflows (high switching costs) and potential for continued platform expansion, which are not fully reflected in its current stock price. An investment at the current price offers approximately 53.5% upside. The thesis could be invalidated by AI-driven disruption leading to pricing pressure or seat compression, weaker-than-expected net expansion rates, failure to achieve projected operating leverage, and the model's inherent sensitivity to discount rate and terminal growth assumptions.
A detailed DCF model, using assumptions of strong but decelerating revenue growth (from 20.5% down to 4.5% over 10 years) and expanding GAAP EBIT margins (from 15% to 22.5%), yields an intrinsic value of ~$160 per share. The current market price of $104.27 is significantly below the calculated intrinsic value, providing a 35% margin of safety. This discrepancy suggests the market is overly pessimistic about NOW's long-term cash generation potential. The company is undervalued due to its entrenched position within customer workflows (high switching costs) and potential for continued platform expansion, which are not fully reflected in its current stock price. An investment at the current price offers approximately 53.5% upside. The thesis could be invalidated by AI-driven disruption leading to pricing pressure or seat compression, weaker-than-expected net expansion rates, failure to achieve projected operating leverage, and the model's inherent sensitivity to discount rate and terminal growth assumptions.
AI/Semi
Long
Apr 03
$187.16
-18.4%
A detailed DCF model under base-case assumptions yields an intrinsic value of $263.79 per share versus a recent market price of ~$187. This implies a ~29% margin of safety, as the market is discounting CRM due to near-term SaaS sector woes, underestimating its future margin expansion and cash generation. The stock is undervalued based on the author's analysis of its growth, operating leverage, and cost of capital. Failure to achieve modeled margin expansion (bear case EBIT margin of 24%), higher cost of capital (9.0% WACC), slower terminal growth (1.5%), or prolonged sector downturn.
A detailed DCF model under base-case assumptions yields an intrinsic value of $263.79 per share versus a recent market price of ~$187. This implies a ~29% margin of safety, as the market is discounting CRM due to near-term SaaS sector woes, underestimating its future margin expansion and cash generation. The stock is undervalued based on the author's analysis of its growth, operating leverage, and cost of capital. Failure to achieve modeled margin expansion (bear case EBIT margin of 24%), higher cost of capital (9.0% WACC), slower terminal growth (1.5%), or prolonged sector downturn.
AI/Semi
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u/HatedMoats has 2 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 2 tickers since February 2026. Most covered: NOW, CRM.
