u/GrowthIsOverrated

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Jan 2026
Calls
2
Win Rate
50.0%
return
-1.1%
Calls 2 2 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Win Rate 50% Long 2 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 0%
90d 100%
Average Return -1.1% Long Return -1.1% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -3.4%
30d -9.2%
90d +4.5%
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Result
Result
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Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
UPST 1ST Upstart ... Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Long
Feb 22
$29.29
-15.3%
Upstart cheap as funding and profitability de-risk
The author argues Upstart's market price is anchored to past funding volatility while ignoring roughly $2.7B in forward-flow capital commitments from Fortress and Castlelake that provide a visible runway into 2026. The business has pivoted to profitability with a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4 '25 and a credible path to about $1.4B revenue in FY2026. The thesis hinges on sustained monthly origination growth and continued reduction in balance-sheet loans, which should drive a re-rate toward the 35-35-48 valuation range for 20-60%+ upside. Main risk is that the implied bearish scenario on funding and execution could still materialize.
Payments & Fintech
REDDIT
Showing 1 of 2 calls · sorted by mentions

u/GrowthIsOverrated has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 2 tickers since January 2026. Most covered: UPST, CAAS.

Historical call returns are modeled from recorded ideas and stored prices, not actual brokerage portfolio returns. Check the evaluated call set and horizon; past results do not establish future prediction accuracy. Explore our data and methodology