The author argues the SPCX lockup expiry will be oversold because the market overestimates how many insiders will dump shares. They expect the stock to dip early around the unlock and then shoot back up within 1-2 days of the lockup ending, and are expressing this via SPCX $160 calls. The main risk is that insider selling is heavier than anticipated, keeping the stock depressed.
Model Y wait times signal bullish Tesla Q2/Q3 sales
The author reports that most Tesla Model Y trims have 4-6 week wait times, the three lowest models have 2+ month waits, and the Model Y Premium is not available until January, which they read as strong demand. They expect a price increase across all models and view this as bullish for Tesla's Q2 and Q3 car sales. The catalyst is the demand-driven price increase over the coming quarters; the main risk implied is that wait times and pricing could normalize.