u/Grand_Diamond_8056

The author argues HDFC Bank's 30.6% drawdown to ₹708 is driven by sentiment around CEO Jagdishan's non-reappointment and a US class-action complaint, not by any guidance cut or deterioration in capital adequacy (19.7%), net NPA (0.38%) or cost-to-income (38.0%). The bull case math: 15% growth at 17x earnings gives ₹1,004, about 42% upside, versus a bear case of ₹647 at 5% growth and 12x. The main risks are a CEO search dragging past October, CASA falling further from ~34%, net NPA above 1%, or core NIM below 3.35% for two more quarters. Timeframe is medium-term, tied to the October CEO transition.