The author argues GEO Group has run up 125% in six months as the top beneficiary of ICE detention contracts, but that Democrats taking both chambers of Congress in under two months will make defunding ICE the top domestic priority, crushing the company's core revenue driver. He has built a position in 2028 puts, calling it the most obvious short of all time. The main stated risk is that 2028 puts are extremely low volume with high spreads.