u/GammaReaper_

The author argues ORCL implied volatility is cheap going into earnings, with a vol-crush-adjusted IV of roughly 10% versus an implied move near 13%. He cites that about 91% of the time the market underestimates ORCL's actual earnings move, and plans a defined-risk long-volatility trade opened into the close and exited around 9:45 a.m. the next day. The main risk is that the trade is a bet on volatility and could lose if the move is smaller than expected. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.

Author argues Costco's options-implied volatility is overpriced relative to historical moves, standard deviation of moves and vol-crush metrics ahead of its after-the-bell earnings. The trade is a 1DTE defined-risk short iron condor opened at today's close, betting the vol crush versus the actual move, with exit by 9:45-10am the next day. Risk is capped by the defined-risk structure and position is sized at 1% of portfolio capital. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.

Author argues Dell's options-implied volatility is cheap relative to historical moves, standard deviation of moves and vol-surface metrics ahead of its after-the-bell earnings. The trade is a 1DTE long defined-risk iron condor opened at today's close, playing the vol crush versus expected/actual moves, with exit by 9:45-10am the next day. Risk is capped by the defined-risk structure and position is sized at 1% of portfolio capital. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.

The author argues NKE options are cheap because ATM straddles price an 8.2% move while historical earnings moves and vol crush math imply a net 10.5% move, and academic research shows underpriced expected moves tend to persist. He is entering a defined-risk trade close to the close looking for a big move post-announcement. Main risk is the trade failing, which he acknowledges by saying he'll either take profits or lick his wounds. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.