u/Friendxx

The author argues TSMC's decision to invest its own capital in a second joint venture with Sony to build next-generation CMOS image sensor chips for physical AI (self-driving cars, humanoid robots) is a powerful insider signal of significant demand. Because TSMC has more demand than capacity from NVDA, AMD, MU, Intel, and Apple, it would not allocate manufacturing, engineering, management resources, and billions of capital to a Sony fab unless it saw substantial demand for this type of AI chip. The catalyst is the newly announced JV revealed on Sony's earnings call, following a first CMOS image sensor JV completed in 2024, indicating TSMC is doubling down on Sony's AI chip. The main risk is that the author is an outsider inferring demand from TSMC's capital allocation rather than confirmed order volumes.

The author argues Reddit (RDDT) is overvalued because growth has stalled, anonymous users make ads less targeted, and volunteer moderation can suppress engagement. He contends AI chatbots are replacing anonymous-forum interactions and that the AI-training data bull story is overhyped since labs already scraped 20 years of posts and new posts are mostly redundant. He concludes Reddit is worth $50 at best, with the main stated risk being the AI-training narrative that he believes mainly fuels insider selling.