Tech sector market cap equals all other sectors combined; valuations imply unsustainable AI spending for years to come. History (dot‑com crash) shows extreme tech overvaluation can lead to 80–90% drawdowns; a correction in overpriced tech ETFs is a plausible asymmetric trade. Shorting the tech‑heavy QQQ ETF as a macro bet against inflated valuations, with bearish conviction from the author’s comparison to 1999. Momentum continues driven by AI catalysts and strong earnings; central bank liquidity keeps prices elevated; recession fears could actually push money into megacap tech as a “safe” haven.
Tech sector market cap equals all other sectors combined; valuations imply unsustainable AI spending for years to come. History (dot‑com crash) shows extreme tech overvaluation can lead to 80–90% drawdowns; a correction in overpriced tech ETFs is a plausible asymmetric trade. Shorting the tech‑heavy QQQ ETF as a macro bet against inflated valuations, with bearish conviction from the author’s comparison to 1999. Momentum continues driven by AI catalysts and strong earnings; central bank liquidity keeps prices elevated; recession fears could actually push money into megacap tech as a “safe” haven.