u/fire_alarmist

The author claims precious metals refuse to fall even with near-certain rate hikes and tightening, and are on the brink of breaking to new highs whenever policy attention shifts. The mechanism is a large-scale exodus from fiat money driven by $40T and rising debt that cannot be repaid, which would overwhelm the effect of rate hikes. The stated catalyst is the ongoing short attacks on futures failing to push metals down, with no explicit time horizon. Main risk implied is that rate hikes or tightening could still suppress metals.

The author claims PPI, silver, gold and IWM price action together signal a 100% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, arguing the Fed has no choice. The implied mechanism is that higher rates pressure small caps, making IWM vulnerable. The main risk is that the author's read of the price action as a hike signal could be wrong, as they note others have disputed the hike thesis for two months.