u/endlessftw

The author argues that if the Fed does not hike rates this month while Japan raises rates in September, the yen carry trade will unwind as cheap yen funding disappears, nuking the stock market from ATHs. The catalyst is the September BoJ hike plus a dovish Fed refusing to fight inflation, with the author expecting further BoJ hikes beyond September. Even a Fed hike would hurt the market, just less badly, so the author advises running for the hills. Main risk implied is that the Fed hikes and the damage is milder than feared.