Aurora has ~440K driverless miles, 100% on-time, zero attributed collisions; targets ~200 driverless trucks by end-2026. If Aurora shifts to customer-owned “Driver as a Service” fleets, it becomes a recurring per-mile software/platform play rather than low-margin trucking. Author is betting on Urmson’s execution and Aurora’s commercial lead to capture most of the autonomous freight market. Cash burn, dilution, scaling delays, regulatory setback, or a serious collision could destroy the thesis.
Aurora has ~440K driverless miles, 100% on-time, zero attributed collisions; targets ~200 driverless trucks by end-2026. If Aurora shifts to customer-owned “Driver as a Service” fleets, it becomes a recurring per-mile software/platform play rather than low-margin trucking. Author is betting on Urmson’s execution and Aurora’s commercial lead to capture most of the autonomous freight market. Cash burn, dilution, scaling delays, regulatory setback, or a serious collision could destroy the thesis.