u/Deus_Vult-333

The author has been building and adding to a short position in Moderna since roughly $140, arguing the market massively overreacted to positive Phase 3 melanoma data. The mechanism is valuation: even treating a very large share of eligible melanoma patients would not justify the post-announcement market cap, so the price requires believing Moderna becomes a much broader oncology platform. The author notes short interest was already around 15% of float before the move, suggesting part of the rally was short/gamma squeeze dynamics rather than fundamental repricing. Main risk implied is a continued squeeze or a broader oncology platform materializing, pushing the stock toward $180-200+.