u/CUbuffGuy

The author plans to go long bonds via TMF in roughly six months when the Fed returns to cutting rates. The mechanism is that rate cuts would drive long-bond prices higher, benefiting the leveraged long-bond ETF TMF. The stated catalyst is a resumption of rate cuts on a six-month horizon. Main risk is timing uncertainty around when cuts actually resume.

The author argues that people are panic-buying bonds, pushing yields down, and expects to short bonds via TMV (an inverse long-bond ETF) while this bond run-up plays out. The mechanism is that a bond rally driven by panic should reverse, making an inverse bond fund appreciate. The author then plans to switch to TMF in about six months when rate cuts resume, implying a rate-cut catalyst on that horizon. Main risk is that the bond rally persists or cuts come sooner than expected.

Revenue up 57.9% YoY, backlog book-to-bill ratio of 1.92 (up from 1.57), and agreements with Alphabet and SpaceX for space datacenters. RDW is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the secular growth of space infrastructure without valuation distortion from a SpaceX IPO; its acquisition strategy keeps it cash-flow-negative but secures future work. Long-term accumulation play on the “build stuff in space” theme; the author is adding shares, not options, indicating conviction in multi-year upside. Management quality questioned by commenters; company still unprofitable; space infrastructure timelines uncertain; competitive landscape may shift.