u/Competitive-Wall2473

A major geopolitical crisis, like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would severely disrupt the global economy and increase uncertainty. This disruption and uncertainty would likely trigger a broad market sell-off as investors flee to safety and factor in higher energy costs and inflation. The author suggests that shorting the market (e.g., via SPY puts or shorting futures) in advance of a self-initiated crisis would be a profitable strategy for a nation like Iran. Markets may not react as negatively as expected, or central bank/government intervention could mute the impact. The core premise of a sanctioned state accessing markets to place large short bets is highly improbable.

Iran has foreknowledge of its own plans to disrupt global oil supply, such as attempting to shut the Strait of Hormuz. Such an event would cause a significant and rapid spike in the price of crude oil. Buying call options or going long on oil futures/ETFs beforehand would be highly profitable. The post implies that if a state actor like Iran were to act on its own geopolitical plans, a long position on oil would be a direct way to capitalize on the resulting supply shock. The primary risk is that the event does not occur or has a lesser impact than anticipated. Additionally, as comments point out, sanctioned entities have extremely limited or no access to Western financial markets to place such trades.